The National Weather Service has released a “preliminary winter outlook” predicting above average temperatures and below average precipitation for the 2023-24 winter season in Wisconsin.

Among key messages released in its late August update, the National Weather Service noted that “El Nino conditions are ongoing, with a greater than 95% chance of it lasting through the Northern Hemisphere winter.”

Additionally, the update reports, the El Nino event “has a 20% chance of becoming historically strong.”

According to the update: “El Nino events typically favor warmer and drier conditions during the winter across North Dakota, although other climate features can cancel out this impact.”

The event also brings to the autumn season tendencies “to be near normal with a gradual” further defined as “not abrupt, transition to winter-like temperatures.”

Aided by maps, the update, noted that in the central portion of the country, including Wisconsin, the autumn temperature and precipitation outlooks, during the months of September, October and November, had “equal chances” of bringing “above, below or near normal” conditions, with the exception of the northern portion of the state which is predicted to see precipitation in a range that is below normal. 

Looking at the months of December, 2023, and January and February in 2024, the update indicated that Wisconsin was in a portion of the country where the temperature outlook had a probability, described as a percentage chance, of leaning 40-50% above normal, and the precipitation outlook had a probability, described as a percentage chance of leaning 33-40% below normal.

According to the update, autumns across the region over the past three years have been affected by La Nina patterns, which “are typically mild before a sharp drop into colder temperatures for winter.”

By comparison, the update stated, El Nino patterns in autumn favor conditions that are “closer to normal, before a more gradual transition into winter temperatures.”

Additionally, the update noted, “due to ongoing El Nino, this winter is favored to have above average temperatures … However, we will still have cold periods during the winter,” and, the update continued, there is an 11% possibility that the entire season “ends up below average.”

Further, the National Weather Service reports, “there is a slight tilt towards below normal precipitation,” but, it continued, “it only takes on big snowstorm to significantly increase our seasonal snow total.”

For more information and updates about weather, visit the National Weather Service website: https://www.weather.gov/.